Overreaction to Brentford Defeat – Market Movers

Overreaction to Brentford Defeat – Market Movers

Brentford’s price has changed significantly after this weekend’s result

13 betting companies have been offering odds on Brentford achieving a top 6 finish.

Of those, as many as eight changed their price based on the Bees’ 1-0 home defeat to Birmingham on the opening day.

On average, the implied probability of the odds decreased by 2.72%, or as much as 4.43% if we exclude the five betting companies who did not change their prices.

Bet365 went from 11/10 to 13/8, a huge 9.5% drop, SkyBet went from 13/8 to 9/4 at 7.3% while Coral changed 11/8 to 7/4 in a 5.7% shift.

It is perhaps surprising that this one game has led to re-evaluations for the majority – especially when we consider the circumstances of the defeat, with Thomas Franks’ side dominant in many departments.

Despite the absence of dynamic midfielder Kamohelo Mokotjo, who is taking time to recuperate following his involvement in the African Cup of Nations with South Africa and controller Romaine Sawyers, who has gone to West Brom, Brentford dominated the midfield.

Mathias Jensen enjoyed a positive debut after signing from Celta Vigo, showing a good range of passing, while Barnsley recruit Ethan Pinnock was commanding in the air at centre-back.

Brentford had 76% possession, they took 15 shots to 1, they hit the woodwork three times through Ollie Watkins and Emiliano Marcondes, losing only to a freak headed goal from outside the box from Kristian Pedersen.

It is difficult to fault Brentford for the goal; they would have wanted to man-mark Lukas Jutkiewicz and nullify Dan Crowley, so could have been forgiven for not being overly concerned about their left-back heading the ball goalward in a non-threatening area.

Were an identical game to be replayed with different shots, there is little chance that Pedersen would find the net in those circumstances, while one of Watkins or Marcondes’ shots might have crept an inch lower than the crossbar – very little would have to change for us to be looking at a completely different narrative.

Can Brentford bounce back?

The result only affects 1/46th of Brentford’s season – the game would only be more damaging if there was a performance that raised bigger question marks, but clearly that was not the case.

The West Londoners performed at least as well as expected in general play and, at such an early stage of the league campaign, there is plenty of time for them to find a bit more fortune and maybe acquire a more clinical side to their game.

The club are reportedly hoping to sign FC Basel striker Albian Ajeti, who has scored 28 goals in 57 games for the Swiss club.

While a move for Ajeti would be ambitious, given that he has played three times at international level for Switzerland and reportedly wants to play in the Premier League, few expected Brentford to pull off a deal for Pontus Jansson, a Sweden international.

Plus, it is important not to write-off the likes of Watkins, Marcondes, Sergi Canos and Marcus Forss, who are all capable of making positive contributions within a progressive structure – Brentford have 45 games to get their Play-Off push on track.

Written by – Gabriel Sutton (@_FootbalLab)