Cheltenham Gold Cup odds: Changes since September

Cheltenham Gold Cup odds: Changes since September

Fluctuations to Cheltenham Gold Cup odds over the past seven months

As we reach another Cheltenham Festival, a lot of punters have been picking and choosing which horses they’ll be betting on in what is openly recognised as the busiest time of year for bookmakers.

One of the biggest races of the year is the Cheltenham Gold Cup, where all of the strongest competitive racehorses fight toe-to-toe for their own place in history.

We’ve already touched upon our own picks of Cheltenham Festival runners who’ve seen a change in price, but with an individual focus on the Cheltenham Gold Cup, we look at how each shorter-priced horse has had their odds fluctuate between September and the day before the festival gets underway.

Native River – 5/1 to 4/1

Standing as favourite for the Gold Cup at odds of 4/1, Native River was always likely to be among the shorter-priced options, originally handed odds of 5/1 with Sky Bet.

A record of eleven wins, three seconds and six thirds from twenty-three runs puts Native River in a strong position, especially after winning last year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup at a 5/1 starting price.

Even the more generous bookmakers only ever allowed a price as large as 8/1 for Native River to win the Gold Cup, and last year’s win was always bound to put it down as favourite to win the race a second time.

Presenting Percy – 6/1 to 7/2

Only narrowly behind Native River, Presenting Percy started at 6/1 in the Cheltenham Gold Cup odds, dropping to 4/1 by the end of November and to 3/1 by the end of December, but eventually settling on a 7/2 price with most bookmakers.

After past wins at Cheltenham Festival in the 2017 Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle and the 2018 RSA Insurance Novices’ Chase, Presenting Percy has built up a pedigree for performing at the racecourse, working towards a reputable record of ten wins, two seconds and a third from eighteen recognised runs.

Two wins from three races last year set a promising record, and the fact that Presenting Percy has won the John Mulhern Galmoy Hurdle at Gowran Park only lines him up in a better light for this year’s Gold Cup.

Presenting Percy Davy Russell

Presenting Percy won last year’s RSA Insurance Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham Festival 2018.

Clan Des Obeaux – 50/1 to 9/2

It took until December for Clan Des Obeaux to be offered a price but when it was, the 50/1 odds displayed an only minor chance that it would be able to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

The change from 50/1 to 9/2 has been one of the largest at this year’s edition of the festival, leaving us with no choice but to include it in our picks for changes to Cheltenham Festival odds.

Possessing seven wins, four seconds and a third from seventeen runs, Clan Des Obeaux kicked off 2019 with a win in the Betfair Denman Chase at Ascot, and the fact that he’s trained by Paul Nicholls only makes it easier to imagine Clan Des Obeaux winning this year’s Gold Cup.

Kemboy – 50/1 to 9/1

With a hunger for success in the sport of horse racing as emphatic as Willie Mullins, any horse he enters into a race is expected to stand a strong chance of coming out on top. This is the case with Kemboy, who’s gone from 50/1 to 9/1 through a lot of punters hedging their bets with an outsider.

Thirteen runs overall have been formed from six wins and three seconds, making for a record that isn’t as exciting as the horses with shorter prices. It could be the Willie Mullins effect that’s made the largest impact to those betting on the race, as an estimated 6% of those betting on Cheltenham Gold Cup odds have opted to back Kemboy.

Despite never previously picking up a win at Cheltenham Racecourse, Kemboy has won his last four races, dating back to April 2018, where his jockey fell in the BoyleSports Irish Grand National Chase at Fairyhouse.

Willie Mullins horse racing

Willie Mullins will be hoping to maintain his advantage for Cheltenham Festival wins over Nicky Henderson.

Bellshill – 16/1 to 12/1

Another outsider trained by Willie Mullins, Bellshill has seen a similar starting price as Kemboy but without heights as large as 50/1 at stake. Bellshill started in September at odds of 16/1, moving as high as 25/1, before dropping to 12/1 and rarely moving to a shorter price until the week of the festival.

Being priced at 12/1 sees Bellshill joint with all of Might Bite, Thistlecrack and Al Boum Photo on a lot of bookmaker websites. We’re expecting to see these prices move as we approach the race itself, as they’re all capable of shortening enough to be within close proximity to the current favourites.

Running twenty-one races establishes Bellshill as one of the more experienced horses in the race. It’s seen eleven wins from those runs to possess a win percentage of over 50%.

Might Bite – 11/2 to 14/1

Finally including a horse trained by Nicky Henderson in the list, Might Bite has become a favourite in the world of horse racing, prompting a lot of punters into placing bets on the horse ahead of most other competitors.

It finished second to Native River in last year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup, and it could end up being an overtly generous price in hindsight, as it’s arguably more worthy of finishing first this time around.

Going without a price until the start of November, Might Bite went right in at 11/2, only seeing a drop after some poor form which had the horse finishing last in the Betfair Chase at Haydock, and resulting seventh in the 32Red King George VI Chase at Kempton.

Other contenders in this year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup

After the previously mentioned horses, another fifteen horses are given a price, leaving what’s expected to be a massively competitive race meeting even if not all of these horses end up starting the race on Friday afternoon.

A lot of people are likely to be backing Thistlecrack, who’s trained by Colin Tizzard and handed odds of 12/1. He goes into the race after picking up thirteen wins from twenty-three races. Another Colin Tizzard horse follows closely behind, Elegant Escape priced at 20/1.

It’s hard to single out any more individual horses in contention for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, but due to the fierce nature of how it unfolds every year, we could be in for a shock, as it maintains a lot of the elements that makes races like the Aintree Grant National so excitingly unpredictable.

Last year’s Gold Cup had the expected level of excitement: