Barcelona vs Valencia: Preview, Prediction & Betting Tips

The big fixture in LA Liga takes place at the Camp Nou as Barcelona host Valencia on Monday. The hosts now know that they would require a miracle to compete for the league title as the trophy looks destined for their rivals Real Madrid.

Location: Spotify Camp Nou

Date: 29/04/2024

Kick-Off: 8:00 PM

Los Cules are currently second in the league after 32 games played and are also only two wins away from securing their place once again in next season’s UEFA Champions League. Following their defeat in the El Clasico, Barcelona are now 11 points behind Real Madrid having played the same number of games. This does mean Real Madrid only needs two wins to secure the league title.

As for the visitors, they are still harbouring an outside chance of gaining a UEFA Conference League place. Valencia is currently in eighth place in the league, knowing a win will move them above Real Betis.

As it stands, the extra place awarded through the UEFA Coefficient looks like the only possible route for Valencia to sneak a European place. In the most recent league meeting between the two teams, both teams faced a stalemate. Joao Felix had his effort cancelled out by Hugo Guillamon in the second half.

Barcelona Team News

Gavi and Alejandro Balde will both be unavailable against Valencia. There are possible suspension risks for the likes of Ilkay Gundogan, Oriol Romeu and Andreas Christensen.

Valencia Team News

Mouctar Diakhaby and Roman Yaremchuk are both ruled out for this game with injuries. Popelu and Fran Perez are both suspension risks.

The recent history between the two teams suggests that Barcelona will be the favourites for this game. The hosts have won four out of their last five games against Valencia, with Valencia only managing one draw in that time.

The two sides have faced each other on less than 60 occasions competitively with Barcelona winning 31 times, drawing 17 and Valencia being the victors on 12 occasions. On average both teams average 3.12 goals in this fixture.

The last time the visitors recorded a competitive victory over Barcelona was in 2020. Valencia won the game 2-0 thanks to an own goal from Jordi Alba and a right-footed effort from Maxi Gomez. Interestingly, current Barcelona player Ferran Torres provided the assist for Valencia’s second goal.

The more notable game between the two sides over the last ten years would arguably be the 7-0 humbling Barcelona provided Valencia in the Copa del Ray in 2016. A wonderful display of goalscoring from Luis Suarez and Lionel Messi provided Gary Neville with arguably one of his worst nights as a footballing professional.

Valencia have only won three of their last 32 league meetings with Barcelona and their win in 2020 was the first at home to the Catalans since 2007. Valencia last tasted victory at the Camp Nou in 2016 and previously in 2014. Xavi is unbeaten as a manager against Valencia.

The corresponding fixture last season resulted in a 1-0 win for Les Cules. Raphinha scored the winning goal in which Barcelona managed to hold on for the win despite having Ronald Araujo sent off just before the hour mark.

Barcelona’s home form is excellent heading into this game. At home, Barcelona have played 16 games in the league and has won 12, drawn once and lost the remaining three games. In their last five home games in the league, Barcelona have won four and drawn one.

Xavi’s side has averaged 2.31 points per game at home, as well as scoring an average of 2.13 goals per game. Defensively they’ve conceded 1.19 goals per game. In their last home game, they recorded a 1-0 win over Las Palmas. A single goal from Raphinha gave Xavi’s side the win.

Barcelona dominated the encounter with 69% possession, 13 shots and accumulated an xG of 1.46. Robert Lewandowski is leading the way in terms of goal contributions this season.

The Polish striker has 21 goal contributions this season in 28 appearances. Lewandowski scored a vital goal at the Mestalla last season in a 1-0 win. The injury-time winner proved to be an important goal in Barcelona’s league triumph.

Having not won away at Barcelona since 2016, the odds aren’t great for the visitors. Valencia’s away form is considered quite average coming into this game.

The away side has won two out of their last five away games, losing the other three remaining games. Valencia has averaged 1.13 points per game away from home. Los Ches have won five games from 16 away games this season, drawing three times and losing eight times.

Valencia can take some confidence from their last two away games. Los Ches are unbeaten in their last two away games, including two consecutive clean sheets against Osasuna and Granada.

In their last away fixture against Osasuna, Valencia produced a resilient performance to come away with the win. Valencia conceded the majority of the possession and was on the receiving end of 12 shots to five.

Despite having an xG of 0.78 to their opponents' 1.51, Valencia found a way through in the 18th minute thanks to Andre Almeida. Almeida was also on hand to score the winner against Granada.

The away side has scored exactly one goal per game away from home and defensively they have conceded 1.5 goals per match. Their clean sheet percentage provides a concern for this game. Away from home, they have only managed a clean sheet in 19% of those games, compared to 56% at the Mestalla.

Hugo Duro will be important to Valencia at the weekend. The Spanish forward has 12 goals and two assists in 32 appearances this season. Duro averages 0.40 goals per 90 minutes.

The game will be live on Premier Sports 1.

We are predicting a Barcelona win in this game. Valencia's record of three wins in 32 does not provide a good omen for the away side in this game.

Barcelona 4-1 Valencia

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