UFC 257: Dustin Poirier V Conor McGregor - FightZone Preview, Tips & Prediction

McGregor v poirier odds
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Conor McGregor v Dustin Poirier Odds

The Notorious is back. Regardless of who, when and where, whenever Conor McGregor is in town, a show will be put on.

He will be facing an old foe upon his return too, in the shape of Dustin Poirier on January 23. The two last met in 2014 at UFC 178, where bad blood dominated the pre-fight buildup and such tension was short-lived inside the Octagon, with McGregor finishing 'The Diamond' inside round one.

There hasn't been much animosity leading up to this one though, as respects have already been shown between the two. Both fighters have drastically changed since their bout, with either fighter going on to taste UFC gold and also become fathers, which has clearly changed the mindset and trash-talk like nature of McGregor; they are somewhat unrecognisable from six years ago.

Ahead of the highly-anticipated main event, we've looked into the odds, tips and give our FightZone prediction.

Outright odds to win

There isn't too much in the outright odds for the bout.

It won't come as a surprise for many to see McGregor open up as the favourite, with a price of 4/9. This is notably higher in comparison to his last fight against Donald Cerrone, as it seems as though the bookmakers are paying their respects to Poirier, and rightfully so.

'The Diamond' has been the much more active fighter over the past two years, competing five times compared to McGregor's tally of two. Poirier's victories have come against the elite, with names like Justin Gaethje, Eddie Alvarez and even taking the win against arguably the greatest featherweight of all time in Max Holloway, before beating Dan Hooker in a five-round war last time out.

Poirier's only loss from his last five came against Khabib Nurmagomedov, a fighter that has established himself as a modern anomaly in the organisation and losing to the current lightweight champion is barely statement from himself

Betfair have the Louisianan at 7/4 to win.

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william_hill betting tip

CONOR MCGREGOR TO WIN VIA TKO/KO, UNDER THREE ROUNDS AND MCGREGOR TO LAND OVER 2 KNOCKDOWNS (WAS 9/1) @ 12/1

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Conor McGregor odds to beat Dustin Poirier via TKO/KO

When McGregor wins, it tends to come in spectacular fashion as seven of his last eight wins in the UFC have come via TKO/KO.

Recognised as one of the greatest-ever strikers in the organisation, not many can go toe-to-toe with 'The Notorious' and get the better of him. Whether it be from a counter strike or a quick combination coming forward, McGregor's boxing ability is almost unprecedented in the lightweight division.

It's worth noting that his decision win over Nate Diaz came at welterweight, and even there he managed to drop the Stockton-born fighter - a man known for his durability. McGregor holds serious power at 155, and nobody has ever been able to brush off that left hand, bar Nurmagomedov.

McGregor's first bout with Poirier came at featherweight, where a quick clip around the ear, just below the illegal target, put the latter to the ground. Given such context, there isn't much value in the Irishman to win via TKO/KO and he is priced at under evens at 4/7.

Dustin Poirier to win via TKO/KO

Poirier has been given a significantly larger shot at finishing his opponent on Jan 23 and Betfair have the American down at 7/2 to win via TKO/KO.

Like McGregor, 'The Diamond' opts to keep his fights on the feet. His allusive boxing skills often sees Poirier be the aggressor in his bouts, but it tends to stem from volume and not one punch power that sees him close the show.

This was the case against both Gaethje and Alvarez back in 2018, although the latter win did come in the second round. Poirier likes to advance forward and engage, but he will have to be wary against McGregor, who is so calculated and clinical.

In his last showing against Hooker, the American piled on the pressure and got caught in many fiery exchanges. He is durable though, and if a finish is to come, it will likely come in the later rounds.

Dustin Poirier TKO/KO odds v Conor McGregor

betfair betting tip

DUSTIN POIRIER TO WIN VIA KO/TKO IN ROUND 3 @ 17/1

Poirier odds to win via points

In contrast to win via TKO/KO, the odds to go the distance are in Poirier's favour. In fact, he is favoured over McGregor to win on points - 6/1 compared to 13/2.

Although this is by the slimmest of margins, it must be noted that the Diamond has been granted the outright label as the underdog. To therefore be favoured in a 'win market' is rather unusual, but one that pays credit to the fighter that the 31-year-old has become.

We've touched greatly on the American's durability inside the cage - he is a very tough nut to crack. Some of the shots he absorbed from Hooker would put many fighters away, but he stood his ground and fired back. The last man to actually finish him off was Michael Johnson back in 2016 - Poirier's record speaks 6-1 since then.

His last two wins have come via unanimous decision, courtesy of him causing more damage over the aforementioned Hooker and also fan-favourite Max Holloway.

McGregor odds to win via points

As mentioned from above, McGregor's odds to win on points are slightly higher than his opponent - he has been given a price of 13/2.

This simply comes from Mystic Mac's record on paper - he has won twice via decision in his professional career, out of 25 fights. The first came during a three round bout with Holloway back in 2013, in what proved to be rather light work on the night for McGregor.

Since then though, he has had a constant urge to close the show. His last fight that went the distance was his rematch against Nate Diaz, but then again, who ever gets a finish over a Diaz?

Over his career, McGregor has been known as a 'knock-out artist'. Should this go the distance, we believe the fight will favour Poirier. If not, any early stoppage is likely to come from the Irishman.

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Submission odds

Not many will be predicting this fight to finish by submission.

McGregor has never won via this method in the UFC, whilst Poirier only has once from his last 13 wins in the organisations. Both men prefer standing, but maybe it's not in the wins where we need to be looking here, particularly for the former.

The Irishman's only two losses in the UFC have come via submission, to Nate Diaz and Khabib Nurmagomedov. His first came after blowing his gas tank and being forced to try and grapple with the younger Diaz brother - not a wise choice. McGregor was previously stumbled and upon choosing to try and shoot at Nate, the latter intercepted and dominated from the top.

It was somewhat similar against Khabib too, although the Dagestan wrestler is virtually an anomaly when it comes to analysing fights. He was able to repeatedly take Conor to the ground, eventually wearing him down and capitalising in the fourth.

Can Poirier use his durability to drag this fight into the later rounds and look for a finish from this angle? It certainly isn't a wild thought, given how hard he hits himself. If he can put the irishman down, he may opt to ground and pound, before submitting. Poirier has odds of 10/1 to do so at Betfair, with his price being significantly shorter in this market to McGregor's 33/1.

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