FA Cup Betting Stats and Tips - January 2021

The FA Cup is back this weekend, with there being plenty of games and televised fixtures coming our way.

Ahead of the action, we've looked into the betting stats and the calculated percentages for certain markets to land. This have been done via the FREE FA Betting Hub app, which can be downloaded on IOS or Android below.

There are plenty of statistics to browse through inside the app, so if you're a stats man, it will most likely be one for you. Take a read below of this weekend's top % chances.

Based on season stats, three FA Cup fixtures this weekend have a calculated chance of over 60% in seeing both teams to score.

Crawley v Leeds United is the top ranked game at 63%, and this market has landed nine times in the former's last ten games. The League Two side are the second top goalscorers in their division this season, scoring 34 goals in 22 games - they have scored in their last ten fixtures across all competitions.

Finding the back of the net doesn't tend to be an issue for John Yems' men, it's keeping them out of their own net that is. Their 28 conceded in the league is the second worst record for a top-half side and from just their two FA Cup games this season, they have shipped six goals. Such reading will encourage Leeds, who have scored 16 in their last eight. During these set of fixtures, they have only failed to score once. At evens, there seems to be big value in this selection landing.

Blackburn have been a tad hit and miss of late, but they remain dangerous in-front of goal. They have only drawn a blank twice from their last thirteen, scoring 2+ goals seven times. The Rovers will see their fixture against Doncaster as a potentially 'slippery' one though, with the League One club arriving in terrific form.

They have won 6 from their last 8, but five of these victories have come with BTTS. The market has landed ten times from their last twelve fixtures, certainly therefore justifying their inclusion on this list. At 3/4, there is yet again some value in seeing some goals in this FA Cup fixture.

The above fixture and also Newport v Brighton share a calculated chance of 61.2%, with the latter game sharing similar priced odds of 10/11. Both teams to score has landed in Newport's last four games - they certainly love a goal, having scored in their last nineteen games. Although the League Two club are facing PL opposition, this stat will certainly encourage them to push on.

Brighton have kept just one clean sheet from their last nine, conceding seven in their last four games. Going forward though, they certainly have the quality to punish a lower league side - they most recently put three past Wolves and in their EFL cup fixtures this season, scored four against Portsmouth and twice away to Preston.

Hoping for a goal-fest this weekend? The over 2.5 goal market is a popular choice with punters, so we've listed the top three FA Cup percentages below, based on each club's last five games.

Chelsea v Morecambe tops the charts at 80%, in a game where Frank Lampard will be keen for his side to flex their muscles and avoid any more slip-ups. The demolished Championship side Barnsley 6-0 back in September at home, and given the Blues' squad depth, they will be able to field a strong XI on Sunday.

Unsurprisingly, they are huge 1/16 favourites to beat League Two club Morecambe, but the latter will not go down without a fight. They have won four on the bounce and scored in 17 consecutive games. Will they be willing to give it a go at the Bridge? It could open up the game, which could help out in the goals market. Over 2.5 goals is best priced at 1/3.

The other two games to compromise the treble offer bigger value - Luton v Reading and Brentford v Middlesbrough both come out with a 70% chance in seeing over 2.5 goals, with the two sets of fixtures being over evens to see this market land.

This could be seen as rather generous, as over 2.5 goals has come through in four of Reading's, Brentford's and Middlesbrough's last five games. It's landed three times during this time for Luton, including their Boxing Day match against the Royals themselves. It was 2-1 that day, and we would take such a scoreline again this weekend.

The 'magic of the cup' is a notorious saying, and as history has shown us, when the whistle goes in the competition, nothing is guaranteed. Ahead of the weekend's set of fixtures, we've picked out some teams that look to hold some value.

Exeter have been strong at home this season, winning six of their last nine in League Two. With forty goals scored in the division, they are the league's top scorers this season, and will head into Saturday's game against Sheffield Wednesday full of optimism. Although the Owls' form has improved following the departure of Tony Pulis, their change in fortunes have predominantly come at home.

On the road, they are winless in eight, losing six. Such a poor record has seen them granted odds of 11/10 to win - a fairly large price given the difference in league standings. Exeter are 2/1, making them the long-shot choice, but the stats are there to justify this selection.

Another 2/1 selection that has caught our eye are Portsmouth, who were absolutely flying prior to their postponement of games. They have won 4 of their last five games, with their most recent being a solid 2-0 victory over 2nd place Hull City. Their upcoming opponents in Bristol City have lost five of their last seven, failing to score in four of these defeats. The wheels have slowly started to come off for Dean Holden's side, and the momentum on paper looks to lie with the away side on Sunday.

Although this wouldn't be regarded as an 'upset' of any kind, Leicester City's odds are hard to ignore this weekend. The Foxes have the best away record in the Premier League this season, and yet themselves at 4/5 to beat Stoke (A) on Saturday. The latter have won just one of their last eight, and were comfortably dispatched from another Premier League side in Tottenham, just a couple weeks back.

With no clean sheet in their last four either, there is little reason to justify a Stoke result this weekend, with Leicester unbeaten in their own last four. At 4/5, there looks to be big value in Brendan Rodgers side, as surely the manager will be keen to prioritise a piece of silverware this season.