Israel Adesanya v Paulo Costa Odds

Israel Adesanya v Paulo Costa
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Israel Adesanya v Paulo Costa Odds

UFC fans love seeing beef be settled inside the Octagon, particularly when it's genuine.

On September 26, they will get exactly that.

Hard-hitting Paulo Costa is Israel Adesanya's latest challenger, with the Middleweight Championship bout headlining UFC 253. The location is yet to be confirmed, but as long as spectators can see these two enter the cage together, that is all that matters.

Both fighters possess a genuine distaste for the other, with fiery exchanges being shared leading up to the fight. Costa has gone as far to claim that he will 'kill' Israel, with the latter comically claiming that he will 'pop him before USADA does.'

Such heated words have generated huge levels of excitement for the fight, so we've taken a look into the UFC 253 odds.

UFC 253 outright odds

Defending his belt for the third time, it's no surprise to see the reigning champion enter the Octagon as the outright favourite.

Adesanya's odds of 4/7 are relatively shorter than Costa's 11/8, even though both men are undefeated in their professional MMA careers. The former though, has begun defining a dominating era in the division.

His last two victories have been over the highly-respected, and highly-feared figures of Yoel Romero and Robert Whittaker - both of whom are former Middleweight champions. Going back even further, and the trio before-hand are Kelvin Gastelum, Anderson Silva and Derek Brunson. Aside from his iconic Fight of the Year against Kelvin in 2019, none of the aforementioned names ever had the Last Stylebender in any form of trouble.

In comparison to the champ, Costa's list of opponents haven't been of the same pedigree. He did also face Romero, but the decision win was a tad controversial. Izzy will pose the Brazilian all sorts of new threats inside the cage, hence his underdog status.

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Odds to win via TKO/KO

Leading up to the fight, Dana White has predicted the UFC 253 main event to be the 'Fight of the Year'.

Fireworks were expected to fly in Adesanya's last bout, but neither he or Yoel chose to advance forward. It resulted in quite the stalemate, with the crowd's boos being more exhilarating than the exchanges inside the cage.

Costa though, promises drama. 11 of the Erarser's professional victories have come via TKO/KO, with 4 of his 5 UFC wins coming of such. The Brazilian could pass as a Heavyweight at first glance, with his power and striking ability being the main weapon in his arsenal.

He enjoys coming forward and putting his opposition on the back-foot, and we expect those who are backing an upset, to predict it to come via a stoppage. Costa's odds to win via TKO/KO are 23/10.

Adesanya is, however, arguably the greatest counter-striker in the organisation. As we saw against Whittaker, he thrives in letting his opponent do the work, before picking his moments. The Nigerian's striking is so crisp and calculated, he is able to knock-out anybody out, due to his precision. There is some value at 6/4 in him doing so on September 26.

Odds to win via Decision

Four of Adesanya's last six victories have come via decision. Whilst we have highlighted his striking ability, it must be noted that the Middleweight champion enjoys adopting a pragmatic approach to his fights.

As we saw against Yoel, the Nigerian doesn't like being the advancing figure, simply because he doesn't need to be. He enjoys wearing down his opponent with those long-range kicks and counter strikes, two factors he will try and implant to keep Costa at bay.

The Brazilian is an aggressive fighter, but one that has never gone five rounds. In fact, his last bout was the only time he has ever entered round three. The bookmakers have recognised such a factor, pricing Costa at huge odds of 17/2 to win on points.

Granted, he has finished each of his opposing fighters to prevent going the distance, but Adesanya will not be foolish enough to be caught up in the wild exchanges. At 3/1, we're highlighting Israel via decision as our pick for the night.

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