Khabib Nurmagomedov v Justin Gaethje Odds

Khabib Nurmagomedov v Justin Gaethje odds
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Khabib Nurmagomedov v Justin Gaethje odds

UFC 254 is nearly upon us.

It's certainly a stacked card, but all the focus is on the main event between Khabib Nurmagomedov and Justin Gaethje. The Eagle is looking to make it 29-0 in his professional MMA career, with the usual narrative arising of 'is his opponent the guy to beat him?'

Gaethje will arguably be the toughest challenge Khabib has faced in the UFC so far, and the American will be entering the cage looking to swap his interim title, with the real thing.

Taking place on Yas Island on October 24, the main card of UFC 254 will begin at 7:00pm UK time, with the main event expected to take place at 10:00pm. Yes that's right, no 3:00am alarms for a change!

Outright odds

As an undefeated fighter, it won't come as a surprise to see Khabib open up as the outright betting favourite. This has virtually been the case for every one of his UFC bouts so far, including the super fight against the ever-popular backed Conor McGregor.

The Russian is a relatively short 4/11, with Gaethje taking on a underdog price of 9/4.

Justin has only lost two fights in his career, with these coming in the UFC against Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier. Both fights resulted in TKO defeats, but the American has since adopted a more pragmatic approach to his stand-up game.

He enters the Octagon on the back of a four fight winning streak, and we wouldn't be surprised to his 'win odds' shorten before the bout takes place.

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Khabib TKO/KO Odds

Unless you've been living under a rock for the past five years, or this is your first introduction to the UFC, you will know that Khabib is not entirely known for his KO victories.

Instead, he has gained a reputation for being the best wrestler in the organisation's history. Coming into the cage, every opponent knows his gameplan, but nobody has been able to prevent being taken to the ground.

There is always the potential of a ground and pound win, but his odds of 4/1 to win via TKO/KO reflect his tendency to seek victory elsewhere.

Just one of his last nine wins have come via this method.

Khabib Gaethje Odds

skybet betting tip

GAETHJE TO WIN IN ROUND 5 @ 33/1

Gaethje odds to win via TKO/KO

Gaethje certainly lives up to his nickname of 'The Highlight.'

He is an explosive fighter that likes coming forward - his last nine professional wins have come via TKO/KO. As mentioned prior though, he has slightly shifted to a more pragmatic stand-up game, and this has come courtesy of trainer Trevor Wittman.

The American's two TKO losses forced him to stop being so erratic, bust instead, to start punishing on the counter, as we say through his devastating victory over Tony Ferguson. It certainly takes a lot to put 'The Boogeyman' away, and Gaethje did so with his power, but also his precision.

On the feet, he holds an advantage over Khabib - despite being the underdog, he has shorter TKO/KO odds to his opponent. Gaethje to win via TKO/KO is 3/1.

UFC 254 TKO/KO Odds

skybet betting tip

KHABIB TO WIN IN ROUND 3 @ 11/1

Submission odds

The shortest victory method price is Khabib via submission at 15/8.

His last two victories have come from exactly this, where he took McGregor and Poirer to the ground, and drained their energy from the off. Both wins came after the second round, with the two performances being a cliche of what he does best. Get to the floor, and maul.

When the Eagle gets the back, the fight is close to being stopped. From his track record, the above price isn't a shock.

Where this match-up does get interesting though, is through Gaethje's own wrestling credentials. He was a NCAA Division I wrestler, so he can certainly hold his own with regards to a defensive standpoint. We have not seen any of his opponents shoot or look to go the ground, presumably in respect of this very fact.

Can he keep it on the feet where he wants Khabib? This is where the fight will be won or lost. Gaethje's submission odds are a huge 40/1.

UFC 254 Round Betting Odds

skybet betting tip

KHABIB NURMAGOMEDOV BY SUBMISSION IN ROUND 4 @ 18/1

Khabib v Gaethje decision odds

The bookmakers aren't fancying this fight to go the distance - with 'yes' in this market being 7/4, compared to a 'no' at 4/9.

Two of Khabib's last four victories have come on points, although his 2017 win over Edson Barboza was a three round fight. The tools that he adopts allows him to dominate his opponents, whose best chances on paper always look to be through a stoppage.

Khabib is a rather generous 5/2 to beat Gaethje on points, with the latter having big odds of 10/1. McGregor is the only man in the UFC to even take a round off the Eagle, making it hard to envision the Lightweight champ being bested in a five round fight.

We have touched on the American's defensive game in stuffing takedowns, so should he manage this, he may outscore Khabib. On the feet though, which could be limited, he will be expected to look for damage.

It's certainly an intriguing one to try and call, but there is value in the interim champion, for those predicting an upset.

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