Liverpool v Atletico Madrid Betting Preview

Diego-simeone

Advantage Atletico

Liverpool host Atletico Madrid at Anfield on Wednesday evening, with the Spanish side entering the tie with a 1-0 advantage from the first leg.

On paper, such a lead does not exactly appear the most daunting scoreline for the Reds, but against a Diego Simeone side, it is a huge ask.

Without an away goal in Madrid, Liverpool will need to win the game by at least two clear goals to progress, should Atletico not find the back of the net. It's not the most ideal scenario for Jurgen Klopp's side, particularly given their recent run of three losses in five games.

Such form has seen Atletico be made the favourites to qualify at 9/10, despite being as high as 6/1 to win the game inside 90 minutes. These prices suggest that the bookmakers are expecting a resilient setup from Simeone, a system his side tends to flourish in.

A clash of styles

Over the years, Simeone and his Atletico side have gained a reputation for their defensive strengths and their ability to shut-out attacking lines. Despite a drop in form this season, they have still kept 11 clean sheets in the league, and 4 in the Champions League.

We saw their defensive resilience in the first leg, with Liverpool not registering a single shot on target. The Spanish side like to setup with two banks of four, with their two frontmen also dropping deep when needed.

Their rigid shape leaves limited room for opponents to attack, and we expect Simeone's men to approach Wednesday's game in this manner. It's a system that continues to deliver results, with no team managing to score three goals against them this season.

Going off the stats, under 2.5 goals looks to be a solid selection.

Liverpool v Atletico Betting Tip

paddy_power betting tip

UNDER 2.5 GOALS @ 4/5

Liverpool still the favourites

Despite Atletico's defensive record, the Reds enter the tie as 11/20 favourites to win the game.

Having just broke the English top-flight record with 22 consecutive wins at home, this won't come as a surprise to punters. Klopp's side are a force to be reckoned with at Anfield, hence their short price to win the game inside 90 minutes.

Despite their label as the favourites, their price of 11/10 to qualify suggests the bookmakers think the Reds have too much to do to progress on the night. Liverpool failed to win their last home game in the competition back in November, when Napoli frustrated them to a 1-1 draw.

We still expect Liverpool fans to have faith in their attacking firepower though, with Betfair boasting the best market price for them to go through.

Liverpool v Atletico Madrid team news

Liverpool were handed an early blow coming into the tie, with star-keeper Alisson being ruled out. The Brazilian has arguably been the best shot-stopper in England since arriving in Merseyside last season, and his absence will be felt.

Jordan Henderson had initially been a doubt, but the Englishman has been back in training this week. Liverpool haven't looked the same without their skipper in the middle, so we'd expect him to feature.

Liverpool predicted XI: Adrian, Arnold, Van Dijk, Gomez, Robertson, Fabinho, Henderson, Wijnaldum, Salah, Firmino, Mane.

In contrast to Klopp, Simeone virtually has a fully fit squad to choose from. With his gameplan being nailed on in the first tie, we'd be surprised to see any changes.

Atletico Madrid Predicted XI: Oblak, Vrsaljko, Savic, Felipe, Lodi, Koke, Partey, Saul, Lemar, Correa, Morata.

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