Ryder Cup Odds, Predictions & Tips: Day 1 & 2 Markets

In recent years, both sides have often traded blows on the Friday, with the US usually leading handsomely after the morning session, but Europe pulling it back with a dominant afternoon session. In the last three Ryder Cups, the US have led after session one, including sweeping the board in 2016 with four wins from the opening four foursomes matches. True to home advantage though, in 2014 and 2018, Europe came back in the second session to lead after day one.

At the last three Ryder Cups held in America, the US have led after day one, and now with arguably their strongest team ever, with nine of the world’s top 11 in their ranks, it is no surprise to see they are heavy favourites to have the early lead. The margin of the lead has been two points or higher on each occasion too, so the US to lead with a (-1.5) handicap at 11/8 looks like a near-certainty.

The US team sometimes come into trouble on the foursomes, where players take alternating shots with the same ball. In 2014 and 2018, the US took just half a point from a possible eight in the day one foursomes, and they drew 2-2 on home soil in 2012. The overall tally since 1995 has seen Europe win 15 points more than the US on the foursomes overall, and with the morning session on day one being a foursomes, Europe will need to use their form in recent years to keep themselves in strong contention.

The Americans have a far better record in the fourballs over the last 25 years, despite still trailing Europe overall by 50 points to 46, playing best ball wins is more suited to a team of players who are the better individuals as opposed to Europe who will be relying on the strength of teamwork, and captain Padraig Harrington will look to make that teamwork count in the foursomes firstly for his European side.

Europe’s best chance of winning a session will be in the foursomes and it will more than likely be a very close-run thing too. Europe to win 2.5-1.5 in the foursomes is 13/2, while a 2-2 tie is 3/1. Should Europe win or tie in the foursomes though, it is unlikely they will enjoy similar success in the best-ball fourballs. The best value doubles appear to be a Europe foursomes-USA fourballs double at 5/1, while a tied foursomes-USA fourballs double is 13/2.

Another footnote is that both sides have completed a 4-0 sweep on day one in foursomes in the last two Ryder Cups. A 4-0 win for the US team in either session, with their current crop, on home soil is a real possibility at 11/1, while Europe’s chances of a clean sweep look more unlikely, but are 22/1 to do so in either session.

Day two will most likely be much of the same, just with a few tweaks to the matchups and pairings. Therefore, all of the odds for day one and day two are identical, so looking into some combined markets across the two days offer some interesting scenarios.

The last few Ryder Cups have been relatively straightforward as the hosts have led on day one, day two and then won on the Sunday. With the strength in the American ranks this year, it is no surprise to see that this scenario is priced at just 2/1.

In recent events after day two, the writing is usually on the wall, as the eventual winner has taken a very comfortable lead into the singles on Sunday and have then seen out the victory. Therefore, the most likely day for a surprise will be day one. A day one tie, followed by a US lead after day two and a US overall win, offers greater value at 14/1.
Any romantics who believe a repeat of 2012’s Miracle at Medinah could be on the cards may look towards the USA-USA-Europe bet, priced at 25/1. Despite Europe being 10-6 down after day two, they still managed to turn things around on American soil, winning 8.5 points from a possible 12 on Sunday to win outright. To put into perspective how unlikely an occurrence that is, an 8.5-3.5 scoreline in favour of Europe in the singles this time around is 25/1 in itself.

In three of the last four Ryder Cups, the hosts have led 10-6 after day two, and for another repeat of that scoreline going into Sunday, the odds are 8/1. Despite the abundance of talent in the US team, it is very unlikely that a day two scoreline will see a margin greater than four, so a US lead of 9.5-6.5 (odds of 15/2) or 9-7 (odds of 13/2) are also very likely.

By Andrew Delaney