Tokyo Olympics: Men's 10m Diving Odds

Each nation is only permitted two athletes in each diving event at the Olympics, and to be selected for the Chinese team, in any event, takes some doing, especially being picked ahead of the defending champion. Yang Jian enters as the favourite, picked ahead of Rio gold medallist, Chen Aisen, thanks to the world title he won in 2019 with a phenomenal score of 598.65. This followed his win at the Asian Games in 2018 and a bronze at the 2017 World Championships.

He was a bit of a latecomer to the top table as, at 27, this is his first Olympics, and he has only been on the scene for around five years, but the man nicknamed the ‘Difficulty King’ is exactly that, with the scores he produces only being possible by performing the toughest dive routines and executing them brilliantly.

China is the undisputed global force in the diving world and Yang is their top man in this category. The country has medalled in the men’s 10m platform at every Olympics dating back to 1984, and Yang is favourite to take gold at 8/11.

After winning global and Olympic medals in every other diving category, Cao Yuan is now looking to complete a career clean sweep by focusing on the 10m platform for the first time here in Tokyo. He won the 10m synchro gold at London 2012 as a 17-year-old and won on the 3m springboard four years later in Rio, with an additional three world golds to his name, including being a double champion in 2019.

He has already medalled at these games too, perhaps slightly underperforming though, by taking silver in the 10m synchro behind Team GB alongside Chen Aisen. His compatriot Yang Jian’s win at the 2019 World’s saw China achieve a 1-2 on the podium and Cao will look to repeat that feat again for his nation, but he certainly has his eyes set on the gold medal himself.

China has had two divers on a single podium three times in this event at the Olympics, and with Yang and Cao the two clear favourites, with the latter priced at 2/1, they have every chance of doing so again.

After beating many of his upcoming competitors when taking gold in the 10m synchro earlier at the Games, Team GB’s Tom Daley will look to do so again in his individual event. He is the only man in the field who has an Olympic medal in the 10m platform, after taking bronze in London nine years ago, but after finally winning a gold at his fourth Olympics, there is nothing stopping him from chasing yet another here.

The Olympic gold completed a glittering collection of medals already achieved in his career, with three worlds, four Commonwealth, and five European golds in his cabinet. The 10m platform is definitely his strongest event too. He took the world title in the 10m platform as a 15-year-old in 2009 and did so once against eight years later, while he has been dominant on the European stage, taking three golds and two silvers in the last six championships.

Daley will certainly look to put the heavy disappointment of finishing 18th in this event in Rio behind him though, and he is 4/1 to take gold and 4/7 to make his way onto the podium.

Born in Luhansk in the war-torn area of Donbass, Aleksandr Bondar was a Ukrainian diver in his early career, representing them at London 2012 and winning a bronze at the 2011 World Championships, but since moving to Russia and becoming a citizen in 2015, his success has increased substantially.

It might not have been a popular decision but Bondar has reaped the benefits, becoming one of the best divers in Europe. Consecutive 10m platform golds at the 2018 and 2021 European Aquatics Championships came alongside gold and silver medals in synchro events, but despite conquering the European stage, he is yet to claim a global title. At the 2019 world’s, he won the bronze medal behind two Chinese divers, and it may be deja vu for Bondar in the event here.

After taking bronze in the 10m synchro last week at these Games, Bondar may do the same again, but he is 12/1 to be an unfancied gold medallist.

The new wonderkid of the diving world is Ukraine’s Oleksii Sereda, who, at just 15, is the youngest competitor in this year’s men’s 10m platform, and the only qualifier from his nation. He became the youngest man ever to win a European title when he took the gold medal in this event at the European Diving Championships at the age of just 13.
That achievement was enough to qualify him for the Olympics, but he then followed it up with a fourth-place finish at the 2019 World’s, which consolidated his place at the Games even further, and instantly made him one of the favourites for a medal here. Sereda also won the mixed 10m synchro gold at the European Championships in May alongside fellow teenager Kseniia Baylo, showing that the young man has the winning habit already.

Both during and after the era of the Soviet Union, no Ukrainian diver has ever medalled in the men’s 10m platform, but Sereda has the talent and potential to do so, if not now, then certainly in Olympics’ to come. He is 22/1 to take gold here.

The lower-ranked Russian Olympic Committee diver for this event is the very experienced Viktor Minibaev, who made his Olympic bow at London 2012. He has already won a bronze medal at these Games, alongside fellow Russian Bondar in the 10m synchro, but he finished behind teams that included Tom Daley and Cao Yuan, two men he will compete against here, so a huge improvement will be required if he is to get among the medals.

Despite now being in his 30’s, Minibaev is still yet to win a global gold medal, instead claiming four silvers, all of which came in pair events. He did take the 2014 European title in this event, as well as in silver in both 2012 and 2016, but his individual bronze in May saw him finish behind both Bondar and Daley, so the European challenge to the Chinese divers may come elsewhere. His fourth-place finish at London 2012 saw him finish with a career-best score of 527.80, but with the Chinese athletes scoring close to 600 points, gold looks a long shot.

The legendary Dmitri Sautin is the only ever Russian-born champion in this event, with one of his eight Olympic medals being the 10m platform gold in 1996. Minibaev is looking to become the second here, and is 33/1 to do so.