Tokyo Olympics: Men's 400m Hurdles Odds

400m hurdles
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Karsten Warholm (NOR)

The Norwegian, Karsten Warholm, is the undisputed favourite for the 400m hurdles gold medal in Tokyo and he has become one of the true superstars in world athletics in recent times. The 25-year-old has dominated this event in all of the major competitions over the past few years and the one-year postponement has not dented his chances in any way, if anything, he is an even stronger athlete now than he was 12 months ago.

Gold medals in the 2017 and 2019 World Championships and in the 2018 European Championships shows why he is the favourite and if that was not enough, he broke the 29-year world record in the event at the start of the month, running it in 46.70 seconds. The world record could easily go again in the Olympic final as everything will be on the line.

Warholm came 10th in the Rio Olympics, but he has since chalked two whole seconds off his times since then. It is no surprise to see Warholm priced at 4/9 to take gold.

Rai Benjamin (USA)

Without doubt Warholm's closest competitor and another runner showing supreme form at the perfect time is Rai Benjamin of the USA. Just a week before the world record went at the start of July, Benjamin came within five thousands of a second from breaking it himself, meaning he currently holds the third-fastest 400m hurdles time in history. Two athletes running such fast times going into the games further adds to the belief that the world record will go again in Tokyo.

Benjamin switched allegiances from Antigua and Barbuda to represent the USA team in 2018 and in his only major tournament to date, the 2019 Worlds, he claimed the silver medal behind Warholm.

As of now, the American is 13/8 to pip the world record holder and go one better to claim the gold medal in Tokyo.


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Abderrahman Samba (QAT)

The rest of the contenders realistically would be happy to take a bronze medal but in athletics a number of things can happen such as disqualifications, line violations, falls and injuries, so do not rule out the rest, especially Qatari runner Abderrahman Samba.

Samba holds the Asian record in this event and has run sub-47 seconds before, so if he can replicate those sorts of performance and kick on a little more, he could definitely offer a threat to the main two. In his home championships in Doha in 2019, he took the bronze medal behind Warholm and Benjamin.

In these Asian-based Olympics, he probably has the best chance of any Asian athlete to win gold on the track and Samba is 10/1 to win a first-ever Olympic gold medal for Qatar.

Alison dos Santos (BRA)

Alison dos Santos is another relative newcomer to the global athletics scene who has rapidly improved his performances since the 2019 Worlds where he finished seventh as a 19-year-old. As well as being the current Pan-American champion in the event, he is also the South American record holder, and he has broken his own record three times since he initially did so in May, consistently shaving a 10th of a second off his time as the Olympics get closer.

The Brazilian's time of 47.34 was enough for him to win the Diamond League meeting in Stockholm at the start of the month. If he is able to continue his improvements in Tokyo and run closer to sub-47 seconds, he could be a threat.

He is now 11/1 to take gold for Brazil.

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Kyron McMaster (BVI)

Representing a nation of just 30,000 people in one of the biggest events at the upcoming Olympics will surely be a special moment for Kyron McMaster of the British Virgin Islands, but the 24-year-old will not just be there to make up the numbers like many of his nation's Olympic competitors have done in the past.

McMaster will be looking to make history once again for his tiny home nation as he strives to win their first-ever Olympic medal in the country’s tenth appearance at the Games. He took 2018 Commonwealth gold in this event which was also the Island’s first-ever medal in those games and he has a good chance of being a history-maker again in Tokyo.

His record in the World Championships has been agonising though. He qualified for the final in 2017 but was disqualified for stepping out of his lane, and in 2019 he finished fourth in the final, behind Warholm, Benjamin and Samba, three of his competitors in Tokyo.

As of now, McMaster is 22/1 to replicate his performance in the Commonwealth Games by taking the gold medal.

Yasmani Copello (TUR)

One of the seasoned veterans in comparison to many of the contenders this summer will be Cuban-born Yasmani Copello, who represents Turkey. The 34-year-old, who moved to Turkey to enhance his potential in 2012, has represented the European nation since 2014 and was initially the biggest European threat in this event on the global stage before Warholm came along.

He will be the only 400m hurdler running this summer with an Olympic medal too, as he took the bronze in Rio in 2016, while also taking the European crown that same year. However, Warholm’s breakout year in 2017 saw Copello finish second to the Norwegian in both the 2017 World Championships and 2018 European Championships.

He has medalled twice this season in the Diamond League but this will most likely be his final shot at an Olympic title. Copello is 33/1 to finally outwit his rival from Norway and take the gold for Turkey.

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