UFC 251: Kamaru Usman v Jorge Masvidal Odds

Gilbert Burns is out of UFC 251. The Brazilian was set to face Kamaru Usman for the welterweight title in the first-ever main event on Fight Island, this Saturday, July 11 (early Sunday for UK viewers).

The legendary Jorge Masvidal will now take Burns' place against the champion in what will be one of the most highly anticipated fights of the past year. Back in January, the two clashed in verbal warfare at a press event and ever since, talks have begun about how, when and if the two will battle.

Whilst Burns' rise has been explosive, there can be no denying that Masvidal deserves this shot at the welterweight crown just as much after three famous victories in 2019.

'Gamebred' will now arrive in Abu Dhabi on just six days notice and the Miami-born's shot at the title this weekend will come after a record-breaking 48 career fights without a go at UFC gold.

Here, we look at all the Paddy Power odds for the main event on Fight Island.

Fight Island will play hosts to three title fights for UFC 251 in what is set to be one of the greatest nights the company's history. Max Holloway will also take on Alexander Volkanovski, as the Hawaiian looks to win back his featherweight crown - read the odds here.

For the main event, however, Usman's battle with Masvidal is perhaps the most intriguing battle out of the lot. 'The Nigerian Nightmare' has a magnificent CV, winning 16 and losing just the once. which came all the way back in 2013 and thus meaning he is unbeaten in the UFC.

Through this, Usman has now gone on a 15-fight win streak with eight of them coming via decision and the Nigerian is now, undoubtedly, one of the world's most dominant fighters.

With this said, Usman is a 1/3 favourite outright, so it will be worth heading for a points victory at 13/8 if you fancy the champion to defend his crown. In fact, in the 33-year-old's 11 UFC fights since 2015, only three of them have come via a submission or TKO/KO, with his TKO over Colby Covington his most recent win.

As for Masvidal, the UFC fans globally will be gushing with excitement over his late arrival. Whilst the battle between Burns and Usman was set to be a special bout with a potential upset, the arrival of the BMF champion takes the hype to a new stratosphere.

The fight will come just six months after the two were taped going at it behind the scenes of a press event, with security having to step in to avoid anything physical happening. Now, after months of wondering when Masvidal would return, 'Gamebred' is back and living up to his name in every sense of the word.

To win on points is an unlikely route, however, for the American. Whilst the 35-year-old remains one of the most experienced MMA fighters around, facing Usman on six days notice in a five-round fight is a lot to ask of anybody.

Masvidal is a high 11/1 to win on points, which will be the 18th time he has done so, and thus mean he then has two more wins via decision than he does by TKO/KO (16). However, we won't know if his cardio can take him there on just six days notice until then, but, this is Masvidal, and he has truly shocked the MMA world the past year.

Now, if Masvidal is to win, a TKO/KO victory is the most likely outcome. Indeed, 'Gamebred' does have more wins through decision than he does in this manner, however, as alluded to, surely his gas tank won't compete with Usman without a serious fight camp.

Plus, Masvidal has been on an absolute rampage as a knockout artist in recent times, propelling him into one of the sport's most watchable fighters. A shock KO over Darren Till in front of his own fans was truly one of the most brutal knockouts of the year, whilst his flying knee KO over Ben Askren remains the fastest knockout in UFC history at five seconds.

Now, eight months after his TKO victory of the legendary Nate Diaz, Masvidal is a tempting 10/3 to win by TKO/KO for the fourth time in a row. That famous fight against Diaz earned him the BMF title, and whilst this won't be on the line against Usman, 'The Nigerian Nightmare' is 13/8 to TKO/KO the BMF champion and defend his welterweight crown.

The champion has been on a fantastic streak since arriving in the UFC, although, Usman hasn't necessarily been the most entertaining fighters to watch. Dominant wrestling displays over the likes of Tyron Woodley, Rafael dos Anjos and Demian Maia have all gone the distance, with his December TKO/KO over Covington just his second win in this way in five UFC years.

If the fight is to be ended in a TKO/KO, it's likely to be Masvidal as he became such a legendary knockout artist in 2019.

The odds for a submission win are high and it is incredibly unlikely the fight takes this route.

From Masvidal's 48 fights, only four have finished with a submission and just two of them were a win for him. In fact, the last time 'Gamebred' saw a fight finish through a submission was way back in 2013 when he forced the tap from Michael Chiesa - the 35-year-old is now 25/1 to win in this manner one more against the champion.

As for Usman, despite such an elite standard of wrestling, just one win from his 16 have been through submission. However, the welterweight king's one loss in his career was from a rear-naked choke, although, this was - like Masvidal's - seven years ago.

The world class wrestler will go down as one of the greats in this division's history if he can beat the irreplaceable Miami fighter, but, it's doubtful it will come through a submission.

As per combat sports' norm, the best bets are in picking rounds, with the odds relatively low when just choosing the outcome. Round betting for either fighter this time has high odds, as both records of each man delivering almost a 50/50 mix of TKO/KO wins and decision victories.

Usman did beat Convington in his first title defence in the fifth round, which stunned many punters. On the other hand, Masvidal beat Diaz in round three, Till in round two and destroyed Askren in record time all within 2019.

As Masvidal has never had a title shot before (outside of the BMF belt), the American has not won via TKO/KO in a round later than the third. The same applies to Usman, who has only defeated Convington in a round later than the third.

Usman round betting:

• Usman round 1 11/2
• Usman round 2 - 15/2
• Usman round 3 - 9/1
• Usman round 4 - 12/1
• Usman round 5 14/1

Masvidal round betting:

• Masvidal round 1 - 15/2
• Masvidal round 2 - 12/1
• Masvidal round 3 - 18/1
• Masvidal round 4 - 25/1
• Masvidal round 5 - 33/1