UFC 264: Conor McGregor v Dustin Poirier Prediction, Tips & Odds

Poirer v McGregor
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UFC 264 Odds and Betting Markets

Trilogies can often be a rarity in combat sports, something that only adds to the spectacle of them.

The third bout between Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier promises to be not only the most lucrative trilogy in UFC history, but one of the most significant too.

Both fighters share a well-documented history, and both men are desperate to settle the score. The Diamond's immediate celebration to signal that it is 1-1 between the two after his victory back in January, tells us everything we need to know.

No waiting around. No disputes (kind of...). The third fight was signed and sealed nice and swiftly. Headlining UFC 264 at a sold-out T-Mobile Arena, the stage is set for one man to come out on top.

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william_hill betting tip

TUIVASA TO WIN VIA TKO/KO, STEPHEN THOMPSON TO WIN VIA DECISION AND UNDER 3 ROUNDS IN MCGREGOR V POIRIER @ 12/1

A Trilogy For The Ages

Trilogies are fuelled by the investment of fans, without it, they cannot exist.

To pay, sit down and watch two men enter the cage a total of three times, it simply has to be an event that captures the interest of the masses. Of course, whenever The Notorious is in the building, the show-lights are on.

But this isn't simply the McGregor show.

Poirier showcased in the latest meeting that he is a force to be reckoned with. Fans of the sport were already familiar with the Louisianan's skillset, but even the American's biggest fans were left surprised seeing McGregor crashed out on the canvas. Mouth open, eyes delirious. The Irishman was out struck and left in a state that nobody had ever envisioned before.

Although this was the most updated version of the two, the score still reads one apiece. The first encounter, albeit over six years ago, saw McGregor punish Poirier in similar fashion. A heavy left hand floored The Diamond, before an entourage of blows saw the bout stopped.

The script is written, and both fighters have the power to sign it off, with their own perfect ending.

Fight Breakdown

There is an outstanding theme in the upcoming narrative for the trilogy - calf kicks.

Avid followers of the upcoming build-up for the fight will have become tired of these two words, not because they want to downplay the significance of the kicks, in fact, quite the opposite.

The low chopping of McGregor's lead leg, planted forward from his boxing-esque stance, was there for the taking. To be precise, 18 times. It severely compromised the Irishman's mobility, allowing Poirier to swarm forward and engage inside the pocket, of which then his durability shone superior.

It was no doubt the turning point in the fight. McGregor looked sharp in the opening round, landing the cleaner shots and most significantly, the combinations too. His output quickly faded though, and an advancing Poirier causes trouble for any man. Mystic Mac needs to keep the American on the back-foot, and get him out early. Otherwise lightning will strike twice.

This isn't solely due to the kicks either. Poirier found success in that second round on his feet, notably landing a big right which rocked the Notorious. Even the biggest McGregor fans will admit to his lack of a gas tank, which effects his ability to survive an onslaught. Checking the calf kicks will slow this process down, but even still, his avenue to winning this fight lies with an early finish.

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Conor McGregor TKO/KO Odds

8 of McGregor's 10 wins inside the UFC have come via TKO/KO. His striking ability is without question, one of the most complete and polished pieces of a skillset we have ever seen in the organisation, so it isn't a surprise to see this method of victory come out at 6/5.

To say he came close to finishing Dustin in their latest bout would be unfair to the American, but The Notorious certainly landed some flush shots in that opening round. A sequence of a short left and right uppercut being his favourite, as his Instagram posting shows us. Predominantly head hunting, a total of 79% of his shots landed in that area, but he never fully committed with an explosive flurry.

McGregor was biding his time and strikes, demonstrating some boxing tendencies that he has evidently picked up. Should he wish to put Poirier away though, he will need to mix this stance up. A 'Nate Diaz II' approach should be considered - throw leg kicks of your own and mix in some body shots, in an attempt to break the Diamond down.

Dustin Poirier TKO/KO Odds

Will lightning strike twice? Punters may fancy Poirier's chances again in a knockout, with odds of 7/4 in any round. Specific round betting also holds its own value - a 'Rematch Repeat' on SkyBet is 8/1.

The game-plan evidently worked a treat, as highlighted through the result, but more so, the American looked comfortable in there. That 2014 loss did not hold him back, as many predicted it would, and overcoming an early storm boosted his confidence to gain vengeance. Leading up to July 10, Poirier has stated he doesn't care what version of McGregor shows up. This will be the fighter's seventh walk into the Octagon over the last three years, with such activity breeding a new found confidence in the now-experienced figure.

He'll hold even less hesitancy about coming forward this weekend, raising the chances of seeing yet another finish.


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Other UFC 264 Betting Odds

One method of victory that stands out in price is Poirier's submission odds of 8/1. We saw The Diamond easily land a takedown in round one, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him resort to a ground gameplan. Wear and brake the Irishman down and force an opening on the floor - two of McGregor's three UFC losses have come via neck chokes/cranks.

Whilst we must pay homage to Conor's takedown defence, we still expect Poirier to apply pressure in the clinch, and try his luck with a couple shoots too.

The only other method to seriously consider is via decision. But with these two, should that even enter our thinking? The odds suggest no, as there is nothing to split between the duo - Poirier is slightly favoured at 6/1, in comparison to McGregor's 13/2.

6/1 for the former would look to be the more valuable punt, having gone the distance in two of his last three victories. Both came via his more punishing output to his opponents, with his conditioning being off the charts.

However, we are not predicting this fight to see all five rounds.

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