UFC 266 Predictions, Odds, Offers & Tips - Back Our 11/1 Acca!

Nick Diaz returns after a six-year absence from the sport, to take on Robbie Lawler for what is now a middleweight bout after the Stockton native decided to change it only last week. This doesn’t mean much considering it's more or less a legends fight, with no implications to either division, but it might show us where Nick is at mentally as he’s basically anticipated a failed weight cut.

Diaz’s last win was all the way back in 2011 against BJ Penn, which yes, was a different BJ Penn, but it’s safe to say that win hasn’t aged particularly well, but it was also his last win in an impressive 11-fight win streak. Diaz then went on to record three consecutive losses against Carlos Condit, Georges St-Pierre, and Anderson Silva, three all-time greats of the sport, so no shame there.

Regardless of his recent record, Diaz is always in fun fights and always shows up on the night, so don’t take his refusal to cut weight, or his interviews this week fool you; this is still Nick Diaz and we might be talking on Sunday morning how this was all part of the plan.

The same year the California man left the sport, Robbie Lawler was the welterweight champion and won Fight of the Year with Rory Mcdonald, in a fight that most people will use as an example to why you should watch MMA. Whilst Diaz was absent from the sport, Lawler was enjoying a fruitful period in his career, cementing himself as a fan favourite and all time great in the welterweight division.

Unfortunately, Lawler is now on a four-fight skid not recording a win since 2017 and that was to another ageing legend, Donald Cerrone. In truth, it’s hard to know where both these men are in their decorated careers, but this is the perfect fight for the fans and for the fighters themselves to reestablish themselves late on.

As per Diaz and Lawler, respectively, and how the first fight between the two 16 years ago was also a war, expect another one. Furthermore, it's a five-round fight, and at their age, we expect it to go the distance in line with our 11/1 acca.

Brian Ortega will take on Alexander Volkanovski for all the featherweight marbles on Saturday, which is a welcome change from the recent Max Holloway saga and we're sure Volkanoski welcomes the change in opponent too.

This is a perfect title fight as it’s #1 taking on number #3 in the division, both at the top of their game, and with Ortega’s only loss being to Holloway, who. "T-City" poses a different kind of threat with seven of his last 16 wins coming from submission and four of them coming from that triangle choke.

However, we don't expect Ortega to try and take Volkanovski down, but if he can make the fight dirty in the clinch and force the fight to the ground, don’t be surprised if he catches the Australian in a guillotine. This is not to say, Ortega isn’t a threat on the feet, with a stunning first-round KO of Frankie Edgar and in his most recent outing, he dismantled the Sang Chung Jung with a kickboxing masterclass.

He has both the size and power to strike with anyone in the division, but his striking is at its best when he’s on the front foot and when he’s allowed to get into a rhythm, which Volkanovski has proven against Holloway, isn’t always the best key to victory. It’s also worth mentioning that Ortega has found a lot of success against shorter fighters who like to level change, such as Edgar and Thiago Tavaras.

On the other hand, Volkanovski is on a current run of 19 fights unbeaten and is rivaling that of any featherweight run in the history of the UFC. He has an awkward style that he and his highly regarded coach, Eugene Bareman, implement along with his relentless pressure and power. The champion is an impossible task for even the top of the division.

Expect "The Great" to pressure Ortega from the first minute to the last, disrupting his striking and looking to counter at every opportunity. If Ortega doesn’t manage to hurt him early and make him respect his striking, it could be a long night at the office. With that in mind, we think the Volkanovski keeps his belt and takes it to the scorecards and wins.

In the co-main event, Valentina Shevchenko defends her flyweight title against Lauren Murphy and as expected, the champion is the heavy favourite going into the fight once again, and with good reason.

Ultimately, her only losses in the UFC are to Amanda Nunes, with the second fight only losing via split decision and it is commonly agreed that Nunes wins that fight more often than not simply because of her superior size and power, rather than overall pound for pound ability.

Shevchenko has proven she’s dangerous anywhere inside the cage, to the point where now she’s entered Jon Jones territory of beating opponents at their strengths. "The Bullet" is a special striker, and regardless of anything, she is one of the best ever in this regard having plied her trade in mauy Thai fights since the age of 12... yes, 12. She also knocked out a 22-year-old opponent at that age.

With all this said, we don’t see this going anywhere but another easy night for Shevchenko, to the point where if there was an upset, it would rival that of Matt Serra’s win over St-Pierre back at UFC 83 and in terms of odds, be the biggest upset of all time for a title fight.

Although we believe it will be an emphatic win for Valentina, that's not to say Lauren Murphy doesn’t belong in there with her, as she has won her last five in a row, which in any division would most likely get you a title shot. She has never been stopped and has a 53% finish rate, so she is as tough as they come. However, the American is in there with one of the best ever female mixed martial artists and pound for pound, perhaps as good as we've ever seen.