UFC Fight Night: Vettori v Holland Preview, Tips & Prediction

After it was announced that Darren Till is out of his fight with Marvin Vettori this UFC Fight Night, the enigmatic Kevin Holland will step in just three weeks after his defeat to the hands of Derek Brunson in what was his first five-round bout.

The "Trailblazer" took home an extraordinary amount of individual awards and accolades in 2020 and has been one of the most talked-about fighters of recent times as a result. Holland bagged the Fighter of the Year from three separate MMA news organisations, the Breakthrough Fighter of the Year for three other news outlets, three Performance of the Night awards from the UFC, whilst also taking the mantle of the most wins in a calendar year (5) for a UFC middleweight, which also tied him with the overall record alongside Neil Magny and Roger Huerta.

Holland, however, really let himself down in his recent bout with Brunson, at a time where it seemed as if he was just one fight away from potentially setting up a championship bout with Israel Adesanya. Holland lost over five rounds and with his constant talking throughout the fight and little action, it seems as if the American has lost a considerable amount of fans and backing as he fights for UFC gold.

As a result of his bizarre showing - in which Dana White believes the fighter "had a mental breakdown" - Holland is now the underdog at a price of 11/4 against Vettori. However, he remains 9/2 to win via knockout, and given his showing over five rounds last time out, this is his most likely outcome in this bout.

The 28-year-old is approaching his sixth fight in 13 months, and within this time, he has claimed four TKO/KOs over the likes of Ronaldo Souza, Joaquim Buckley and Anthony Hernandez, with his KO over Souza even being one of the knockouts of the year in the eyes of many.

If Holland can continue his form shown prior to the Brunson bout, then he can knock Vettori out. If not, the submission specialist will happily take him into the deeper waters and win over five rounds, just like he did against Jack Hermansson last time out.

Vettori's name has been thrust into the headlights in the middleweight division this past year and after his win over Hermansson, the Italian was set to battle with Till in what was all but a title eliminator, or at the very least, an opportunity to fight for the number one contender spot.

Since his debut in the UFC back in 2016, Vettori has yet to register a TKO/KO win. He has, however, four unanimous decision wins, two submission wins and even managed to go the distance with Adesanya and lose on a split decision - only Jan Blachowicz boasts a win over the middleweight champion in his career, making even this slightly impressive.

All of this will not play into the hands of Holland, and without question, this is the worst fighter Holland could fight on short notice, as the Italian is set to be tactical with his output just like Brunson was. With this said, however, Vettori is priced at 9/2 just like Holland to TKO/KO his opponent.

In fact, nine of Vettori's 16 wins have come via submission, whilst five have come through a decision and just two via a TKO/KO - he is now priced at 2/1 to TKO/KO the BJJ black belt, Holland.

We do believe the favourite status in this one is justified for Vettori, as his form is just as good as Holland's in the past year by beating the threatening Hermansson. At the same time, his superior grappling should be key here and really cause trouble for Holland, as Vettori is also likely going to come into the bout heavier with his bigger frame.

We're going for a Vettori win at 3/10, and specifically, for him to win on via decision a 7/4, as Brunson really looked weaker over this timeframe just last month.